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| Where Was MIT When Really Needed? (NY Daily News) |
A new study by computer scientists at the
Massachusetts Institute Of Technology suggests that
MLB managers usually make poor decisions when yanking or staying with pitchers. The computer model designed by MIT scientist
John Guttag (who is, by the way, a Yankee fan) shows that managers made the wrong decisions about 48% of the time—mostly by leaving pitchers
in. Of course, the opposite situation transpired when Tiger manager
Jim Leyland yanked
Max Scherzer in Game Two of the 2013
ALCS at Fenway. The Detroit bullpen blew the lead and the series went back to Detroit tied at one game each. Guttag's model would have told Leyland to stick with Scherzer. The scientific paper
"A Data-driven Method for In-game Decision Making in MLB" is a geeky sabermatrician's dream, which uses Pitcher’s Total Bases (PTB) as the key measure of hurler effectiveness. The database of 21,538 innings resulted in definite patterns emerging—which conceivably could guide future managers. As Guttag put it,
"Clearly the most important decision a manager makes is changing pitchers. I think there’s definitely room for improvement." You think?
