Thursday, August 29, 2013

Deal With It: Sox Are Likely In The Post-Season

Barring a 2011-like meltdown, your 2013 Carmine Hose are now in a pretty good position to make the post-season. It may be a one-game and out post-season, but it's October baseball nevertheless. Baseball Prospectus projects that Boston has a 76.9% chance of winning the division and a 98% chance of making the post-season. With just 28 games to play in the regular season, they have a 2.5 game edge on Tampa and are starting to separate themselves from Baltimore (7.5 back) and The Evil Ones (8.5 back). Of the remaining 28 games, seven (25%) are with the Bronx Embalmers—three at Fenway and four at The Concrete Bunker On 161st Street. But the Pinstriped Posers are fading fast—Derek Jeter looks his age and Alex Rodriguez is, well, Alex Rodriguez. Even their supposed stud starter Hiroki Kuroda has been miserable in his last several starts. The Rays have just three more games with us, but they are always dangerous with their superb starters. And the Orioles almost needed to sweep Boston in this three-game series, although they do play us six more times after tonight. The rest of the 11 games are with some of the dregs of major league baseball—Colorado (2), the White Sox (3), Toronto (3). Only the mighty Tigers are a real challenge—with three games at Fenway starting on Labor Day. So, even if the Red Sox go 14-14 over their last 28, they'll still end up with 93 wins. If they just win at their current pace (.590), they'll end up with 96 victories. Of course, this isn't to say that disaster can't strike again—it's just very unlikely.