Those of us at
FenwayNation are usually pretty tolerant of the those who rely purely on statistical analyses to project baseball performance. Generally, however, we lean toward a hybrid of old school and new school techniques to get a true handle on things. I guess you could call it
FunnyMoneyBall—a little bit of statistical evaluation and a lot of the old "eyeball" test. Anyway, when we saw that
Baseball Prospectus had projected the Red Sox to finish second in the AL East, we tried to stifle a laugh. We failed. The vaunted
PECOTA system actually divines an 86-76 record for the 2013 Carmine Hose—
a 17-game improvement over 2012. That would give them a record the same as the Tampa Bay Rays, but I guess they give the Red Sox the nod due to having a
real baseball field instead of a warehouse. In any event, we cannot fathom what PECOTA sees to vault Boston into the elite of the American League. Are we watching the same off-season? Nothing would please us more than to be dead wrong.
