Monday, February 11, 2013

Baseball Prospectus Picks Sox 2nd In AL East

Those of us at FenwayNation are usually pretty tolerant of the those who rely purely on statistical analyses to project baseball performance. Generally, however, we lean toward a hybrid of old school and new school techniques to get a true handle on things. I guess you could call it  FunnyMoneyBall—a little bit of statistical evaluation and a lot of the old "eyeball" test. Anyway, when we saw that Baseball Prospectus had projected the Red Sox to finish second in the AL East, we tried to stifle a laugh. We failed. The vaunted PECOTA system actually divines an 86-76 record for the 2013 Carmine Hose—a 17-game improvement over 2012. That would give them a record the same as the Tampa Bay Rays, but I guess they give the Red Sox the nod due to having a real baseball field instead of a warehouse. In any event, we cannot fathom what PECOTA sees to vault Boston into the elite of the American League. Are we watching the same off-season? Nothing would please us more than to be dead wrong.