The Red Sox have fifteen games remaining in the 2011 season and have a slim four game edge on Tampa for the Wild Card. Looking at the fifteen match-ups, they have seven with the lowly Orioles, four with the Rays, three with the Evil Ones and today's matinee with Toronto.Realistically, even with the rag-tag starters we will throw out there, we should win a minimum of seven of those games—that's less than a .500 clip, I know, but we're talking worst case scenario here. That result would yield 93 wins. To get to that number, the Rays would have to win eleven of their last fifteen—seven of which are with the Pinstriped Posers. Assuming that the Bronx Embalmers don't tank a few strategic games to keep the Carmine Hose out of the post-season, it looks pretty good for us.
Maybe that's why Baseball Prospectus estimates the chances of us reaching the playoffs at 98.1%. Still, given all of this rational analysis—our rotation scares me.