Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Crawford, Werth And Bill James

Excerpts from The Bill James Handbook: 2011 are out and (as you can see from the above chart), James' "run prevention" analysis highly touts both Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth. Not surprisingly, both have been rumored as hot targets of Theo this off-season.

Hopefully, there are other factors being considered—since the run prevention paradigm was such an abysmal failure in 2010. I know, I know, the injuries kept us from from seeing the theory in its full glory last year. But, in 2004, the Red Sox allowed 24 more runs than they did in 2010. The difference is, they scored 131 more runs in 2004 than in 2010. So, maybe some more offense (and a better bullpen) would have given us enough extra wins to make the post-season. Somehow, "run prevention" doesn't seem to be panacea that the geek community thinks it is.