THE UPPER LEFT-HAND CORNER

By Laird Harris, Left Coast Correspondent

THE UPPER LEFT-HAND CORNER

Pineiro Possibilities

by Laird Harris, Seattle-Based FN Columnist

Can Joel Pineiro succeed in Boston? I sure hope so. When he is “right” he has a great twelve to six curve and an effective sinking fastball. The deep right field fence should also help since he will hang a few.

Until he was hurt in the later part of the 2004 season, the Mariners considered him a likely #1 or #2 starter for years to come. His slow start in 2005 was attributed to the effects of the injury but his 2006 season has left Mariners fans scratching their heads. After a promising start, he was consistently awful until he was demoted to the bullpen and then he was inconsistently awful.

When the Mariners decided to non-tender him this year, it was clear they had given up on him. They made no attempt to re-sign him. The best thing that is being said is that a change of scenery may be what he needs.

If Pineiro succeeds early and has fan support, he could be a big help to Boston. I think he should be given a chance to start and this will be a stronger role than closing. Pineiro does not have the control or mental make-up to be an effective closer. If used out of the bullpen, he would be better in the middle rather than the end of the game.

One intriguing stat is Pineiro’s career against the Empire – a 3.39 ERA. He has also been tough on Detroit. The AL West killed him over the last two years, maybe a case of over familiarity.

Beasts of the East?

by Laird Harris, FN Correspondent (Left Coast)

Seattle—August 30, 2006. I’ll admit it. I’m surprised when the Mariners or any of the AL West teams hold their own against the likes of Boston or the Evil Empire. Everyone knows the West is least and the East is best.The numbers tell a different story this year. Every team in the AL West has at least an even record against the AL East and three of them have winning records. This is not just a matter of beating AL East bottom feeders. The Empire is the only AL East team with a winning record against the West and it has only a one game margin (18-17.) Eight of their 18 wins were against Texas. What’s going on?

Since this is baseball, all of this may just be a matter of the baseball gods having a little fun at our expense. At the risk of offending them, however, I’ll offer an explanation that may be important lesson for Theo and his crew.Three of the top five AL pitching staffs are found in the West. None are from the East. Looking only at relievers, four of the top six are from the West and the best from the East (found in a Bronx bullpen) is seventh.

With the exception of Bartolo Colon and, possibly Barry Zito, the AL West has no aces that match up with the likes of Schilling, Wells, Johnson and Mussina. There are even few middle of the order pitchers with the successful history of a Clement, Wakefield, Pavano and Wright. Papelbon and Rivera are nails at the end of a game but the numbers say Huston Street, K-Rod and J.J. Putz are right there with them. The AL West advantage lies in their teams’ ability to find, develop and hold onto young pitching talent. Of course, everyone knows how well Oakland does in this area and Texas seems to provide the exception. But look at the middle to the back end of the rotations, the middle relievers and the set-up guys and you see a real difference between AL West staffs and those of the East.

Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Kirk Saarloos, John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Jared Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Gil Meche and Joel Pinero are all innings-eating starters under the age of 28. Reliable middle relievers include Mateo, Gregg, Halsey, Duchscherer, and C.J. Wilson who are basically home grown and under 30 years old. It’s the same story for the set up guys. Scott Shields, Raphael Soriano, Francisco Cordero, Kiki Calero and Joe Kennedy are all under 30.

Acquired veterans have blended in well on these staffs. Kelvin Escobar has given the Angels a solid middle of the rotation guy. Same for Esteban Loaiza for the A’s and Jarrod Washburn for the M’s.
Compare these staffs with Boston (even when healthy) and huge differences appear. The first is age. Schilling (39), Wells (43), and Wakefield (40) are certainly one of the most seasoned top of the rotation guys in baseball. The relief corps must be one of the oldest around as well: Timlin (40), Seanez (38) and Foulke (34) have pitched 200 of the 350 non-save relief innings this year.

The second difference with the West is player history. With the exception of Wakefield in the starting rotation and Papelbon and Delcarmen in the ‘pen, the Sox’s pitchers experienced most of their career success in other uniforms. Only Colon of the top pitchers on AL West staffs fits this description. If getting experienced talent that had proven itself elsewhere actually produced better results, all of these differences wouldn’t matter. The fact is, the results aren’t there this year and there is little reason to think they will be better next year when the staff is another year older. I hope Theo has brought some of Billy Beane’s wisdom about pitcher acquisition and development with him. If not, I think the next few years will be pretty grim in the Fens.

COASTERS BEWARE!

By Laird Harris

The AL Central is no longer a pleasant rest stop for powerhouse East and West Coast ballclubs. Gone are the years when the best Central team would win the division with 90 wins, most at the expense of its division rivals. Last year, I kept thinking the ChiSox would crumble and thought the Indians strength was a mirage. But a little closer look over the winter shows it was not a fluke. Both will be at least as good this year. Then you have the Twins who always have that good pitching. Take a close look at the Tigers. Their lineup has added some real muscle and Paul Byrd should really help a talented young pitching staff. Too bad the only mid-content stop isn’t Kansas City.

With King George and Artie showing some restraint and Theo a no show, free agent wealth was shared with more American League teams this winter. Toronto, Detroit, Cleveland and Texas are all better with the addition of players like A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan, Bengie Molina, Troy Glaus, Magglio Ordonez, Kenny Rogers, Paul Byrd, Kevin Millwood and Adam Eaton. Chicago has almost certainly improved themselves by the addition of Vasquez and Thome.

But, it’s not just a matter of the Central getting better. Age and injuries are playing their parts in producing greater League parity. Steiner and A-Rod are planning a World Series Championship but I think the Yanks will struggle to make the playoffs. There are just too many “ifs” for this team. The starting rotation has only one pitcher with 200+ innings in 2005. They haven’t solved their middle and set-up relief pitching. And that’s before you look at the age factor. Their defense was poor last year and Damon will only help on the margins. He’ll get to some balls that dropped in 2005 but there is still weak arm in center. If the Yanks lose Giambi (age 35), Sheffield (age 37) or Posada (age 35) for any length of time, the lineup drops from overwhelming to very good…and probably not enough to make up for the uncertainty in pitching and a mediocre defense.

I wish I could believe all this is good news for our boys at Fenway. Again, there are too many “ifs” related to age and health. It’s hard to imagine Schilling or Wells making it through an entire season or even pitching more than 175 innings in 2006. The back of the bullpen is a question mark. Lowell and Nixon look to be on the decline. Crisp’s numbers will be close to Damon’s but he can’t match the clutch factor yet. Who knows what orbit Manny will be in. This may be the year the Sox are forced to find out just how good the top of the farm system is. If this is the case, they also may struggle to make the post season.

The Angels and As will continue to be the cream of the West but both the Rangers and Mariners will be better than last year. The A’s rotation is to die for and Huston Street is the second coming of Mariano Rivera. Middle and set-up relief is somewhat of a question mark. If Milton Bradley and Frank Thomas don’t poison the waters, the line-up looks like Billy Beane’s wet dream: two walks and a pop.

The Angels don’t appear to have solved their bottom of the rotation problems and they also face age and health issues in key positions. Anderson and Erstad need to stay healthy for this team to win the AL West. With their great bullpen, strong line-up and great manager, the Angels will almost certainly be in the hunt in September.

This is a year when 91 or 92 wins may be enough to get a team to the post season and it seems likely that no team will have more than 95. My guess is that when all is said and done, the A’s will win the West, Chicago will capture the Central and Toronto will take the East. Wild Card? Either the Indians or Twins. Surprise teams? Detroit and Seattle have a lot of young players with high up-sides and both could improve their 2005 performance by 15 or more wins. Disappointment? The Rangers again. Millwood and Eaton won’t like being shell shocked by teams coming through the Ballpark in Arlington and it’s about time for the players to get tired of Showalter.

I wouldn’t bet the farm on any team this year but I will bet those hot Midwestern days will be hard on teams from both coasts.

Randy Watching

Seattle Jan. 3, 2005– For baseball fans in Seattle, 1995 was almost like the breaking of the Curse. Winning the AL West in a one game playoff and then taking the Yanks in the ALDS literally saved baseball in the Pacific Northwest. No one had more to do with this success than Randy Johnson. He won 18 games and the AL Cy Young award. He was the winning pitcher against the Angels in the playoff and was credited with two wins over the Yanks in the ALDS, the second a gutty relief appearance on one day’s rest.

Seattle wanted to love Johnson along with Junior Griffey, Edgar, Jay Buhner and the rest, but he’s just not the lovable type. By the time he was traded in 1998 for three unknown prospects (Freddie Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama), both Johnson and Mariners fans were eager to say good-bye to each other.

The last four years of Johnson’s tenure in Seattle illustrate both the reasons Steinbrenner wants him in pinstripes, and the risk the Yanks are taking in committing $50 million to him. Following his Cy Young year, Randy started only eight games in 1996 due to back problems. In 1997, despite missing five turns in the rotation, Johnson won 20 games for the first time in his career but lost both his starts against Baltimore in the ALDS.

By 1998, his free agent year, Johnson was feuding with management, Lou Pinella, most of his teammates and the baseball beat reporters covering the Mariners. On the day he was traded, he was 9-10 and had an ERA of 4.33. In August and September for the Astros, Johnson went 10-1 with an ERA of 1.28. Then he lost his NLDS start.

On any given day, Randy Johnson can be the most dominant pitcher in baseball. His fastball is no longer consistently over 95 mph but it can be when Johnson needs it. “Mr. Snappy,” Johnson’s slider, is aptly named. As the years have gone by, Johnson has become a more efficient pitcher, issuing fewer and fewer walks while cutting down his pitches per inning. And, of course, he’s a horse – good for 33-34 starts a year every year when he’s healthy.

He’s a horse, but will Randy Johnson be the stud “hoss” the Boss wants and expects? Maybe yes, maybe no.
There is, of course, the age factor. Even though he pitched 245 innings in 2004 and registered a 2.70 ERA, there is just no telling when a 41 year old power pitcher will break down. Johnson has gone down for long periods in two seasons (1996- back and 2002 – knee.) Neither the back nor the knee is fully healed.

Randy’s most brittle organ, however, may be his thin skin. In the people skills department, he gives away nothing to Kevin Brown. Despite the kid glove treatment he got from local sports writers in Seattle and Phoenix, Johnson lets bad press get to him. One local writer in Seattle captured it best when he said Randy has never met a peeve he didn’t adopt as a pet. Johnson expects beat writers to admire him as much as he admires himself. Unless New York sports media suddenly decide to take sensitivity training, look for trouble here. Johnson also reacts to home fans if they aren’t understanding enough the few times he struggles. The Boss needs to post a “No Boos Allowed” sign when Johnson pitches in Yankee Stadium.

It will be interesting to see how Johnson does pitching in cold weather on a regular basis. He hasn’t done this since leaving Montreal for Seattle and the Kingdome. He’s a California bred kid who lived in Arizona even when he pitched for the Mariners. It will also be interesting to see if he moves his family to New York. He said one of his major problems in Seattle was the distance to his home in Arizona.

At this stage of his career, Johnson is best used for getting seven quality innings with 110 to 120 pitches then getting some reliable relief in behind him. A few blown relief appearances will lead to Johnson insisting on taking the game into the eighth or ninth. If Torre takes the ball prematurely, Randy will pout. If he lets Randy continue on the mound, Johnson will be less and less effective in the late season.Moving back to the designated hitter league will also test Johnson’s stamina. The NL West simply does not have lineups like those he will face in the AL East.

Prediction? By standards for mere mortals Johnson will be great but he will struggle more than people expect. He will have some dominant games, which will raise fan expectations and contribute to their disapproval when he struggles. Health issues will be an increasing concern. My best guess: Johnson will start 30-32 games and finish with a record of 15-8 and an ERA of 3.40 (not much different than Vasquez.) Since he won’t have the Yanks to pitch against (five of his seven post season wins,) his dismal post-season record will continue to haunt him. He’ll be 0-1 as the Yanks lose to the Angels in the ALDS.

Past Articles by Laird Harris

Why the West Was Wan

Seattle – The season’s most exciting divisional races gave the West a great September, but come October it has been one (series) and out for both Western Division winners. Now we sit back and watch baseball with a passion.

Tough September races positioned the Angels and Dodgers poorly for the post season, but there’s another reason. There is a difference between West Coast baseball and The Game in Boston, St. Louis and New York. To understand the difference, ask yourself two questions. Can you imagine the Red Sox, Cardinals or Yankees streaming onto the field to congratulate the team that just eliminated them from post season? Would Theo, Cashman or Jocketty even think about suspending a .297 power hitter from the post season roster?

Baseball with a passion to win. That’s what you don’t find in today’s West Coast teams. Oh, there’re good guys and smart too! Who wouldn’t like to have Oakland’s big three or the Angels’ bullpen? Who wouldn’t like to play a whole season in parks like Petco, Safeco and Bondsco? Give me some high inside heat.