Saturday, June 4, 2022

While Flawed, The Red Sox Have Also Been Unlucky

There's no question that the current configuration of your 2022 Boston Red Sox is not championship calibre. They are deficient at first-base, in the bullpen, in the starting rotation and on the bench. Having said that, they have also been incredibly unlucky so far this season. According to ESPN's metrics, The Carmine Hose should have a 29-23 record right now—four wins more than they actually have. Their run differential is a respectable +27 (4th best in the American League). No one better exemplifies this misfortune than Alex Verdugo—who has hammered the ball this year but gotten little to show for it. 

There are other issues. For example, Boston is 1-6 in the incredibly stupid MLB extra-inning format. You have to think that in a normal extra-inning format, they'd at least have a few more of those wins. They are also 4-8 in one-run games—probably mostly due to their crappy bullpen. They also reside in the toughest division in baseball—and they've gone just 7-14 so far against their division rivals. That's not sustainable.

So, if you mix in some bad luck and some crappy performances—you get a team that's 12 games out of first place in June.